QNB Sees Global Trade Growth Staying Strong in 2026

Qatar National Bank (QNB) has expressed confidence in the outlook for global trade, forecasting continued growth throughout 2026 despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade-related uncertainties. The bank said strong investment in artificial intelligence technologies, improving manufacturing activity and resilient supply chains are supporting international trade flows.

AI Investment Emerges as Major Growth Driver

According to QNB's latest weekly report, investment linked to artificial intelligence has become one of the strongest contributors to global trade expansion. Demand for semiconductors, advanced electronics and data center equipment surged during 2025, accounting for nearly half of global merchandise trade growth. The report noted that global semiconductor sales reached approximately $520 billion to $550 billion, highlighting the growing influence of AI-related industries on international commerce.

Asian Economies Continue to Lead Exports

QNB said highly integrated Asian economies including Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam have maintained strong export performance. Recent trade data shows these countries continue to record healthy growth despite global trade tensions, demonstrating the resilience of regional manufacturing and export networks.

Supply Chains Adapting to New Trade Conditions

The report emphasized that companies worldwide are adapting to changing trade policies by redirecting supply chains rather than reducing trade activity. Asia remains the center of global manufacturing, accounting for nearly 60 percent of worldwide manufacturing output. Countries such as Vietnam, Thailand and India continue to gain market share in key export sectors as businesses diversify production locations.

Manufacturing Recovery Supports Trade Volumes

QNB highlighted that the global manufacturing cycle has stabilized following previous slowdowns. Trade volumes expanded by around 4.6 percent in 2025 as industrial activity recovered more strongly than expected. Companies have also begun rebuilding inventories after a prolonged period of stock reduction, leading to increased demand for machinery, electronics and intermediate goods.

Transportation Indicators Signal Expansion

Investor confidence in global transportation sectors has also improved. QNB noted that positive performance in transportation indicators suggests trade activity remains healthy and is expected to continue expanding. Strong export orders and improving manufacturing surveys further support expectations for sustained trade momentum.

Risks Remain but Growth Outlook Stays Positive

While geopolitical tensions, protectionist policies and trade uncertainties remain key risks, QNB believes structural and cyclical factors are helping offset these challenges. The bank concluded that continued AI-driven investment, stable manufacturing conditions and flexible global supply chains should keep global trade on a positive growth path throughout the year.